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Stock Picking Over Forecasting: How Our Selections Drove Returns in a Volatile ASX
As we move into the final weeks of 2025, the ASX 200 is quietly telling a far more interesting story than the year's volatility might suggest. Trading just below 8,700 points, the market has delivered a mid-single-digit gain despite inflation uncertainty, restrictive monetary policy and persistent geopolitical risk.
That resilience has not come from a broad-based rally. It has been driven by dispersion, selectivity and disciplined capital allocation. In other words, this has been a market that rewards conviction rather than index hugging.
Investor Pulse - Copper’s Multi-Year Opportunity Taking Shape on the ASX
The global copper market is entering a new era of structural tightness. Supply constraints, surging demand from electrification and renewables, and a repricing cycle that could redefine returns are creating what we see as one of the most compelling medium-to-long-term investment windows in years.
Australia, with its stable regulatory environment and high-quality ASX-listed producers, is emerging as a prime destination for investors seeking secure exposure. From BHP’s diversified anchor positions to high-growth names like Aeris Resources, the sector offers opportunities for both stability and upside.
In our latest analysis, we cover:
• Why supply constraints will persist for years, not quarters
• How electrification, renewable energy, and AI-driven infrastructure are driving demand
• The ASX-listed copper stocks best positioned to benefit from this structural shift
• Practical insights on pricing, market sentiment, and entry points
VERITY RESOURCES LTD (ASX: VRL) - A diversified explorer with strong leverage across gold, base metals, and the global energy transition
We’ve added Verity Resources Ltd (ASX: VRL) to our radar as part of a select group of Australian micro caps we believe have genuine “ten-bagger” potential, early-stage companies with strong assets, credible management, and visible catalysts for exponential growth. Verity stands out as one of the most intriguing plays in this group, combining gold stability with high-growth exposure to nickel, copper, and rare earths. Its cornerstone Monument Gold Project in WA accounts for 76.6% of our $71.8 million valuation, supported by impressive drill results up to 38 g/t Au and a fully funded $4 million exploration program through 2026. With 100%-owned projects in Tier-1 jurisdictions, minimal debt, and a market cap of just $7 million versus our $0.20+ intrinsic value, we see VRL as a deeply undervalued, asymmetric opportunity, a potential future 10X return story as it moves from discovery to development.
New Portfolio Additions: PPS, MTS, SIQ, FWD & ACF
Over the past two weeks, Investor Pulse has released a series of new “Buy” recommendations across five standout Australian mid-cap companies, Praemium (ASX: PPS), Metcash (ASX: MTS), Smartgroup (ASX: SIQ), Fleetwood (ASX: FWD), and Acrow (ASX: ACF).
Each company combines operational strength with valuation support — featuring:
• Strong balance sheets and disciplined capital management
• Proven earnings resilience
• Clear visibility into medium-term growth
With the Reserve Bank’s dovish pivot and a stabilising inflation backdrop, we see a favourable environment emerging for quality mid-cap stocks. These five names stand out for their ability to generate cash, deliver consistent results, and capture long-term structural tailwinds.
In This report, we explore why PPS, MTS, SIQ, FWD, and ACF are positioned to lead Australia’s next market upturn.
The Lithium Turn Around: Pilbara, Liontown, IGO, MIN, and GL1 to Watch
Australia’s lithium industry is entering an exciting period. Global demand for lithium is rising sharply, electrification is accelerating, and Australia’s hard-rock lithium producers are perfectly positioned to benefit. From rising export earnings to operational leverage and selective growth opportunities, the fundamentals are compelling.
• We’ve captured the full story in a detailed report, including:
• Why lithium demand is expected to grow more than fivefold by 2040
• How Australia’s producers are turning efficiency into profit
• Key ASX lithium stocks poised to benefit from FY26 market conditions.
Investor Pulse High Conviction Buys - Macmahon, Lycopodium & More
FY25 made one thing clear, execution and discipline are the new alpha.
Across the ASX, a select group of companies didn’t just survive a volatile year, they outperformed, turning industry headwinds into catalysts for growth. From industrial powerhouses like Macmahon and Lycopodium to property leaders such as Cedar Woods and resilient energy names like Origin Energy and Whitehaven, the message is unmistakable: strategy, balance sheet strength, and smart capital allocation are what define real conviction.
In our latest analysis, we break down the standout results, catalysts, and earnings trends behind these High-Conviction Buys, revealing how operational excellence and financial discipline continue to drive sustainable outperformance.
Growth and Income Stocks Update: Metcash, Origin Energy, CBA, Servcorp, and More
While global growth may seem uneven, opportunities abound for investors who know where to look. Our latest analysis highlights companies that combine resilience with growth potential, even in today’s restrictive environment. Inside the article, discover how our Growth and Income Portfolio is positioned to capture these opportunities, including Metcash (ASX: MTS), offering defensive staples with upside from hardware division stability; Origin Energy (ASX: ORG), benefiting from the structural energy transition; CBA (ASX: CBA) and Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL), providing strong fundamentals as reliable anchors; and mid-cap efficiency plays like Korvest (ASX: KOV) and Servcorp (ASX: SRV). From global inflation trends to Australia’s domestic economy, we explore why stability, operational efficiency, and selective growth are the keys to success, helping you position your portfolio to thrive by combining defensive strength with targeted growth opportunities.
Electrification and Battery Metals Contrarian Plays: EVN, AIS, CSC, NIC and LTR + Bonus
As the global commodity cycle heads into a pivotal phase, gold has surged past US$4,300 per ounce, while industrial and battery metals remain in a trough, caught between cyclical softness and the long-term shift toward electrification. Five ASX mid-cap companies, EVN, AIS, CSC, NIC and LTR, stand out for their ability to navigate this environment, combining operational discipline with strategic exposure to both defensive and industrial metals. From Evolution Mining’s high-grade gold operations to Liontown’s lithium ramp-up, these companies highlight how careful execution can turn macro trends into tangible portfolio outcomes. Our analysis explores how gold’s defensive premium and the emerging industrial metals rotation are shaping opportunities for investors as 2026 approaches.
7 Construction Stocks to Watch in a Shifting Market
Australia’s construction and materials sector is at a turning point. Public infrastructure spending is powering ahead, while private building activity is losing steam. This divergence is reshaping opportunities across the industry, and it’s already showing up in company earnings. In our latest article, we examine how the sector is at a pivotal moment, with public spending accelerating and private activity slowing. We also take a close look at seven key stocks, from diversified giants to niche specialists, assessing who stands to benefit from government-led infrastructure pipelines and who is struggling under rising costs and weaker private demand.
Rising Defence Budgets Create Momentum for ASB, BIS, EOS, DRO, and CDA
Australia’s defence sector is undergoing a major transformation, with rising government spending, policy reforms, and international collaborations creating new opportunities for domestic firms. From naval shipbuilding and advanced technology projects to AUKUS initiatives, key programs are reshaping the industry. ASX-listed companies such as Austal (ASB), Bisalloy Steel (BIS), Electro Optic Systems (EOS), DroneShield (DRO), and Codan (CDA) are well-positioned to benefit, making this a pivotal moment for investors and industry watchers alike. Read on to see how these changes are opening doors for growth and innovation in Australia’s defence landscape.
Australia’s Small-Cap Moment: Industrials, Earnings Season, and 5 Stock Picks for 2026
Australia’s economy continues to show resilience—headline inflation is within target, GDP growth is solid, and the labour market remains strong. But the real opportunities for investors may lie beyond the mega-caps, in small- and mid-cap industrials trading at historic discounts. Our latest insights highlight companies like SRG, GNG, GNP, SHA, and DVP that combine recurring revenue, strong balance sheets, and disciplined execution, positioning them for long-term wealth creation as market leadership broadens. With selective exposure, these names could outperform in a market still adjusting to interest-rate shifts and evolving growth trends.
Energy Contrarian Plays: 10 Stocks to Consider
Australia’s energy sector is at a crossroads. Traditional oil, gas, and coal markets are colliding with the accelerating push toward renewables, creating both volatility and opportunity. From Woodside’s LNG expansions to Whitehaven and New Hope’s coal operations, some companies are adapting with discipline while others cling to old assumptions. With China’s demand slowing, India and Southeast Asia emerging, and domestic policy still uncertain, the winners will be those who pivot strategically and plan for a low-carbon future. Our latest research dives into which ASX-listed energy players are positioned to thrive, and which may struggle, as the sector undergoes this real-time transformation.
Investor Pulse Growth and Income: Bisalloy (BIS), EZZ (EZZ), Dexus (DXI) & More
In this article, we highlight several Australian-listed companies that we view as compelling opportunities heading into FY26. Each brings together financial strength, disciplined growth strategies, and strong market positioning, making them well placed to navigate a shifting economic environment. Spanning mining services, industrials, consumer health, and property, these businesses reflect a blend of resilience and scalability that supports long-term value creation. Our focus includes Macmahon Holdings, Perseus Mining, Capral, Bisalloy Steel, EZZ Life Science, and Dexus Industria REIT, names we believe stand out as potential top buys for the year ahead.
Investor Pulse FY25 Earnings Coverage: From HUB24’s rise, CSL’s stumble, and BHP’s pivot & More
August’s ASX earnings season has revealed sharp contrasts across Australia’s market. High-growth names like HUB24 (ASX: HUB) are posting standout results, miners such as BHP (ASX: BHP) are grappling with cyclical headwinds, and defensive plays like GPT (ASX: GPT) and Charter Hall (ASX: CQR) are showing strength. Rate cuts from the RBA have lifted valuations, but investors are increasingly focused on which companies can deliver on FY26 earnings and maintain credible growth. From strategic acquisitions at Ampol (ASX: ALD) to recurring revenue models at SRG (ASX: SRG), the season highlights that execution, cost discipline, and long-term strategy are now just as important as headline numbers.
Dive in to see which companies are thriving, and where opportunities are emerging in this “priced for perfection” environment.
Portfolio Strategy for FY26: Balancing Growth, Cyclicals, and Defensive Quality with HUB24, Novonix, and Qantas
FY25 was a year of sharp contrasts – strong headline returns masked domestic stagnation and gains concentrated in defensive, quality stocks. The RBA’s easing helped, but GDP growth remained modest, and cyclical sectors lagged.
In our latest article, we review our portfolio and recent trades, showing how we’re balancing structural growth, cyclical recovery, and defensive quality to capture opportunities while managing risk. We also highlight the sectors and themes likely to drive earnings in FY26, from decarbonisation and digitisation to technology, healthcare, and data centres.
Discover where active investors may find opportunities and how we’re navigating uncertainty, currency moves, and geopolitical risks.
Don’t Miss the Shift: Our 5 ASX Mining Stocks Could Define the FY26 Cycle
Australia’s mining landscape is entering FY26 with a striking divergence. Gold hovers near US$3,400/oz, central banks are buying aggressively, and safe-haven demand is near decade highs — putting producers like West African Resources (ASX: WAF) and Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) in a strong position. Meanwhile, critical minerals remain strategically vital but are facing a shakeout. With graphite tariffs rising, lithium oversupplied, and government-backed projects gaining traction, companies like Novonix (ASX: NVX) and Polymetals Resources (ASX: POL) could emerge as long-term winners — but selectivity is key.
In our latest FY26 outlook, we break down the macro trends, commodity cycles, and five ASX-listed stocks we believe are best placed to navigate the road ahead.
The FY26 Rotation: ORG, QBE, MTS, HM1… Are our Core Holdings for Growth
The tide is turning for Australian markets, and smart investors know it. With inflation back in range and the RBA shifting its stance, FY26 isn’t about chasing hype, it’s about backing quality. In our latest outlook, we break down why names like Metcash (ASX: MTS), QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE), Origin Energy (ASX: ORG), and Perenti (ASX: PRN) are quietly positioned to outperform as the economy enters a steadier phase. If you’re wondering where the real opportunities lie in this new cycle, this is the must-read playbook.
Australia’s FY26 Infrastructure and Digital Boom: ABB & DOW
As we look ahead to Financial Year 2026, the Australian equity market is entering a phase marked by unusual clarity, and unusually powerful tailwinds. A decisive shift in monetary policy, a generational public infrastructure build-out, and a sweeping digital overhaul of national connectivity are converging to reshape the investment landscape. Against this backdrop, we’ve identified two standout names: Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB) and Downer EDI (ASX: DOW). Together, they offer a rare opportunity to tap into both sides of this transformation, digital and physical, in a way that is diversified, high-conviction, and deeply aligned with structural change.
Smart Money Moves into Small and Mid-Caps: 5 ASX Stocks Standing Out in 2025
Australia’s small and mid-cap stocks are moving back into the spotlight, with fundamentals and structural shifts driving renewed interest. In this note, we highlight five standout companies—Bega Cheese (ASX: BGA), Qualitas (ASX: QAL), Monadelphous (ASX: MND), Hansen Technologies (ASX: HSN), and Integral Diagnostics (ASX: IDX)—that are delivering on strategy and tapping into long-term themes across food, finance, infrastructure, software, and healthcare. For investors looking beyond the headlines, these names are well worth a closer look.
Gold, Critical Minerals, and the China Reset: Why WAF, Kingsgate, and GWR Matter Now
As China redefines its growth model, Australian investors are facing one of the most pivotal shifts in decades. The property-fuelled commodity boom is over.
But a new era of strategic metals, supply chain realignment, and industrial policy is taking shape. In our latest deep-dive, we unpack what this transformation means for local equities and highlight the ASX-listed names best positioned to thrive, including Rand Mining, West African Resources, Catalyst Metals, Kingsgate, GWR Group, Indiana Resources, and Perenti.
Joyce (ASX: JYC) Exit: Strong Gains Locked in Amid Full Valuation, Slowing Growth, and Consumer Headwinds
We’re closing our position on Joyce Corporation (ASX: JYC), having achieved a 30.46%* capital gain since our entry at $3.48, alongside a 6.17% fully franked dividend yield. Joyce has delivered exactly what we expected—leveraging its capital-light model and sector-leading businesses like KWB Group and Bedshed to generate strong returns with minimal reinvestment risk. Its net cash position of $31.8 million and FY23 operating cash flow of $25.5 million reflect a fortress-like balance sheet. But with the valuation gap now closed—trading on a P/E of 18.8x and fair value confirmed by our DCF model—upside from here looks limited. Early signs of pressure on consumer demand and an 8.0% decline in H1 FY25 EBIT suggest slower growth ahead.
Joyce remains a quality operator, but with fewer near-term catalysts and stretched valuation, we’re taking profit and stepping aside for now.
GenusPlus (ASX: GNP) Doubled Since Our First Call — Here’s Why We’re Still Holding
We maintain our HOLD rating on GenusPlus Group Ltd (ASX: GNP) even after the stock has doubled* since our initial call at $2.16 per share and now trades above $4. This impressive run speaks to the strength of the company’s fundamentals and its pivotal role in Australia’s growing energy and communications infrastructure.
With around 90% of revenue for FY2025-27 already secured through a strong order book, alongside a healthy pipeline and strategic acquisitions broadening its reach, GenusPlus is well positioned for steady growth. Its conservative balance sheet and upgraded earnings guidance further contribute to confidence in its outlook.
While the pace of gains may slow, we see clear upside to our revised target above $4.20, making it sensible to hold and capitalise on the company’s long-term prospects in the context of Australia’s infrastructure momentum.
ASX Growth Watch: MaxiPARTS, Metcash & MotorCycle Holdings in Focus
With the ASX 200 hovering near record highs but showing signs of fatigue, July is shaping up to be a month where selectivity matters more than ever. At Investor Pulse, we’ve gone beyond the index to spotlight six small and mid-cap names flying under the radar, each offering compelling value, strong fundamentals, and dividend appeal.
From the turnaround momentum at MaxiPARTS and MotorCycle Holdings to the resilient income profile of Metcash, these are the companies we believe deserve your attention now. Dive into our latest ASX Growth Watch to see what sets them apart.
The Investor Pulse Income Portfolio: Our Updates for FY26
In this article, we review our income portfolio and outlook for FY26
We’re taking a closer look at how our income portfolio performed over the past year, and what’s in store for dividend-focused investors in the next financial year. The past 12 months delivered solid overall results, driven by standout performers like Commonwealth Bank, Wesfarmers, and Goodman Group. These holdings reinforced the value of diversifying across resilient banks, high-quality industrials, and logistics-oriented real estate.
Codan’s Defence Communications Growth Supported by Elevated Middle East Geopolitical Tensions
Codan Ltd’s strategic transition from metal detection to mission-critical communications materially strengthens its long-term investment case. The Communications division now stands as the principal growth engine, underpinned by a robust $247 million order book and the recent $36.1 million acquisition of Kägwerks, which expands Codan’s footprint in defence communications. The company’s half-year results, marked by rising revenue, profit, and improved margins, reflect disciplined execution and a strengthening earnings profile.
While geopolitical tensions introduce an element of risk, they concurrently drive heightened demand for secure defence communications, benefiting Codan’s growing presence in key strategic markets. Supported by positive cash flow and clear strategic momentum, we maintain a “Buy” recommendation with a 12-month target price of $24.99, confident in the company’s prospects within a favourable industry environment.
Middle East War Update and The Stocks Set to Gain
The recent escalation between Israel and Iran marks a significant intensification in Middle Eastern tensions, with missile exchanges and targeted strikes underscoring the fraught geopolitical environment. Beyond the immediate humanitarian and strategic concerns, the conflict is exerting a growing influence on global financial markets, particularly energy supplies and commodity prices.
While Australia’s broader stock market has remained relatively resilient, underlying sectoral shifts are emerging—energy producers such as Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Santos (ASX: STO), and Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), along with gold miners like Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) and Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), are among those well-positioned to benefit from rising oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
In the following analysis, we highlight these companies and others poised to navigate and potentially capitalise on the market volatility arising from this protracted conflict.
Why These 5 ASX Gold and Defence Stocks Are Resilient in a Volatile Market
In the context of escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed uncertainty in US trade policy, the Australian equity market confronts a complex and volatile environment. The deepening Iran-Israel conflict has reverberated through global commodity markets, while Washington’s evolving trade rhetoric continues to exert significant pressure on investor sentiment. Yet within this unsettled setting, select sectors are exhibiting robustness.
In this report, we identify five ASX-listed gold small-cap and defence stocks that are well positioned to navigate—and potentially capitalise on—the prevailing headwinds. Our analysis offers a detailed assessment of the risks and opportunities influencing Australia’s market conditions at this pivotal moment.
22% Returns and Counting: Inside Our Winning ASX Stock Strategy for 2025
In our weekend research publication, we reveal the key ASX stocks that have driven our portfolio to outperform the market with a +22% return over the past year. From Car Group (ASX: CAR) to Orica (ASX: ORI) and QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE), these standout names have anchored our strategy in the context of shifting global rate expectations and fresh domestic data. With the ASX 200 on its longest winning streak since late 2023, we explore what upcoming economic signals mean for investors, and why now might be a pivotal moment.
But the market isn’t without caution flags. Technical signs suggest we could be nearing a turning point, with volatility potentially on the horizon. That’s why our diversified portfolio, including holdings like SRG Group (ASX: SRG) and Qantas (ASX: QAN), remains well positioned for what lies ahead.
Curious to find out why these stocks remain essential to our strategy? Click through to see our full portfolio review and market outlook.
CBA to BHP: How We’re Rating Key ASX Players in 2025
In this article, we are taking a close look at several key Australian stocks, including BHP Group (BHP), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), and CSL Limited (CSL), offering our assessment of their positioning and outlook, and sharing whether we believe each deserves a buy, hold, or avoid rating at this point in the cycle.
As inflation eases and the Reserve Bank of Australia begins to cut rates, the market is entering a more cautious phase. Global uncertainties, including trade tensions and a softening labour market, add complexity. Within the ASX 200, resources and financials remain in focus, but investors need to be selective as sector dynamics diverge.
Beyond the Pipeline: Why Perenti's Earnings Momentum Justifies a $2.25 Target
Perenti Ltd. (ASX: PRN) represents a compelling BUY opportunity, and we are reiterating our 12-month target price of $2.25 per share. Our confidence is rooted in the company's powerful financial performance, highlighted by record revenue in the first half of fiscal 2025 and a firmly reaffirmed outlook for the full year. This financial strength is translating directly into shareholder value through robust free cash flows, which is funding a significant 50% increase in the interim dividend and an ongoing share buyback program.
Beyond the numbers, the investment case is bolstered by a resilient, diversified business model, a massive growth runway with $4.7 billion in secured work and a $17.1 billion project pipeline, and a smart expansion into stable Tier-1 jurisdictions. Given its attractive valuation, we see Perenti as a standout opportunity for investors looking for both capital growth and a dependable, rising income stream