Five High-Conviction Stock Picks for May 2025

In this article, we highlight five ASX-listed names we continue to view as high conviction long-term buys, each backed by a combination of structural tailwinds, strategic execution, and improving fundamentals. From AGL Energy’s transformation into a renewable-focused utility, to ANZ’s growth acceleration through the Suncorp acquisition, and BOQ’s ongoing digital evolution, we see compelling long-term value. We also revisit Northern Star Resources, which is scaling toward global gold major status, and QBE, where capital discipline and earnings momentum have materially improved the investment case. Together, these names offer diversified exposure across energy, banking, resources, and insurance—anchored in clear strategic pathways and supportive technical trends. AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) Source: AGL, weekly chart (2025) We maintain AGL as one of our high conviction long-term buys. Our BUY rationale is anchored in AGL’s pivotal role in Australia’s energy transition. While the company has issued moderated FY25 earnings guidance, we look through near-term volatility and remain focused on structural value creation from decarbonisation. AGL’s expanding renewable energy and battery storage pipeline, coupled with a strong rebound in cash generation, underscores the fundamental transformation underway. The strategic partnership with Kaluza is a key enabler of retail transformation, accelerating AGL’s shift to a more flexible, tech-driven energy provider. Notably, the reinstatement of fully franked dividends strengthens the investment case and reflects growing financial resilience. From a technical standpoint, AGL has traded within a $8.34–$12.27 range over the past year and is currently changing hands around $10.98. While the stock has eased -6.31% over the last 90 days, recent price action has been constructive, gaining 6.29% over the past 30 sessions and trading above its 20-day moving average. This indicates near-term market strength. We see solid technical support around the $10.06 level, offering a potential entry point for long-term market participants. Notably, buy-side volume around $10.81 has surged by 62% over the last 90 days, a bullish signal. Trade Recommendation: Market participants may consider entering within the $10.23–$10.98 range. We are targeting a primary price objective above $12.10, with a secondary target at $13.25. ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) Source: ANZ, weekly chart (2025) We continue to view ANZ Group as one of our high conviction buy ideas, supported by both a compelling valuation and strategic upside. The stock trades on a lower price-to-earnings multiple compared to peers, offering attractive relative value, particularly as the bank enters a new growth phase following its now-approved acquisition of Suncorp Bank. This acquisition significantly expands ANZ’s retail banking footprint, particularly in Queensland, and presents considerable synergy opportunities that we believe the market has yet to fully price in. Beyond traditional banking expansion, the ANZ Plus digital platform stands out as a structural growth driver, positioning the bank to capture younger demographics and drive cost efficiencies over time. While we acknowledge risks such as integration complexity and recent regulatory capital adjustments, we view these as more than offset by the scale benefits and future earnings accretion from the Suncorp transaction. From a technical standpoint, ANZ has traded in a wide range over the past year, and although it has recently recovered some lost ground, the market appears increasingly constructive. The stock is now trending above its 20-day moving average, suggesting growing near-term bullish sentiment. Notably, momentum has shifted positively over the past 30 sessions, with a strong rebound off oversold levels. That said, caution is warranted. We see near-term resistance at $30.36, where profit-taking could cap immediate upside. Volume data also indicates that heavy selling occurred around $28.86, but we interpret this recent weakness as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity. The current trading zone of $27.65–$29.36 represents an attractive entry point for members seeking medium-term exposure. We see upside toward a primary technical target above $31.92, with scope for a secondary target above $34.50. Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) Source: BOQ, weekly chart (2025) Bank of Queensland (BOQ) stands out as a high conviction buy, supported by clear progress in its transformation agenda. The completion of its branch network conversion is expected to deliver both margin improvements and cost efficiencies. At the same time, digital initiatives, including the successful ME Bank migration and the upcoming digital mortgage rollout, are enhancing BOQ’s capability and customer offering. A strong 1H25 result, featuring stable margins, a solid capital position, and an increased dividend, highlights growing confidence in the bank’s ability to meet FY26 targets. Technically, BOQ has shown strong momentum. The stock has traded within the $5.74 to $7.60 range over the past year and is now approaching the top of that band. Over the last 90 days, it has gained 9.21%, with an 18.41% lift in the past month alone. The share price is currently trading above its 20-day moving average, reflecting a positive short-term outlook. A potential entry range sits between $7.12 and $7.59, with a primary technical target above $8.30 and a secondary target near $9.00. Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) Source: NST, weekly chart (2025) Northern Star Resources (NST) stands out as a solid long-term buy. The company has stepped up its game in a big way, with the recent De Grey Mining acquisition adding serious weight to its portfolio. The standout here is the Tier-1 Hemi project, which we see as a major growth engine. Once Hemi is fully developed, NST has a clear path to producing over 2 million ounces of gold per year, something only a handful of gold miners globally can claim. One of the key reasons we’re backing NST is its asset base. These are high-quality operations located in politically stable, mining-friendly jurisdictions, namely Western Australia and Alaska. That gives NST a level of certainty and consistency that’s hard to find in the gold sector. We think this geographic profile sets them apart, especially when paired with their operational expertise. There’s no ignoring the recent issues at KCGM, but we don’t think it changes the long-term story. We view these challenges as temporary and manageable. NST has a strong history of improving performance across its operations, and we expect the same here. The management team is experienced and proactive, which gives us confidence they’ll turn things around. Financially, NST is in excellent shape. The company is net cash, which gives it plenty of flexibility to invest in growth, manage through volatility, and continue returning capital to shareholders. NST has been consistent in delivering dividends, and that steady approach to capital returns reinforces our view that this is a shareholder-focused business with its priorities in order. With gold prices hovering near record highs, NST is well-positioned to benefit. The company has meaningful leverage to the gold price, and as production ramps up, particularly with Hemi in the pipeline, that leverage will only grow. We see strong free cash flow potential here, especially if gold continues to trade at elevated levels. From a technical perspective, the stock has moved within a $12.21–$23 range over the past year and is currently sitting at $19.97. It’s up around 12.63% over the last 90 days, although we’ve seen some weakness in the past month. Still, there’s solid support near $17.78, which could provide a foundation for a near-term rebound. We see an attractive entry zone in the $18.01–$19.97 range, with a first technical target at $22.91 and a secondary target at $25.86. Resistance around $22.35 could slow things down in the short term, but the broader trend remains encouraging. All in all, we believe NST brings together scale, quality, and growth in a way few gold producers can match. The addition of Hemi meaningfully lifts the company’s long-term outlook, and the combination of a strong balance sheet, production growth, and leverage to gold puts NST in a great position. Short-term noise around KCGM shouldn’t distract from the bigger picture. For those looking for high-quality gold exposure with upside and resilience, we see Northern Star as a long-term buy. QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) Source: QBE, weekly chart (2025) QBE is a solid long-term buy, supported by a strong set of FY24 results and a range of structural improvements that support the company’s earnings outlook and capital position. The year was marked by significant progress in profitability, with improvements in net profit after tax (NPAT), return on equity (ROE), and the combined operating ratio (COR), all of which indicate more effective underwriting and operational discipline. These financial results signal that QBE is benefiting from both internal restructuring and external tailwinds, particularly in premium rate increases and investment income. QBE’s capital position remains robust, well above regulatory requirements, which provides flexibility for continued shareholder returns and potential growth initiatives. The group’s ability to deliver a significantly increased dividend in FY24 reflects growing confidence in the sustainability of its earnings base. This dividend uplift appears to mark the beginning of a more consistent and progressive capital return profile. Additionally, premium rate momentum across major geographies remains favourable, helping the group mitigate claims inflation and maintain strong underwriting margins. One of the more encouraging aspects of QBE’s recent performance is the visible impact of portfolio optimisation. The group has taken steps to exit underperforming or volatile business lines, streamline its operations, and focus on core segments with pricing power and stronger risk-adjusted returns. This disciplined approach is yielding benefits, with a noticeable reduction in earnings volatility. While QBE has historically faced challenges in delivering consistent results, recent performance suggests these issues are being structurally addressed rather than temporarily masked by market conditions. Investor sentiment around QBE has also turned more constructive, supported by both the earnings delivery and the broader investment environment. Investment income has been a tailwind, with the company benefitting from rising interest rates and improved returns across its portfolio. This trend is likely to persist given current monetary settings, adding another layer of support to earnings. From a technical perspective, QBE is trading near the upper end of its 12-month range, having appreciated strongly in recent months. Currently changing hands at $21.89, the stock has gained 7.83% over the last 90 days and 11.12% over the past 30 trading sessions. Momentum is clearly strong, and the stock is trading above its 20-day moving average, a signal that near-term sentiment is bullish. However, investors should be aware of potential resistance at the $22.64 level, which has historically capped upward movement. A reasonable entry range is between $20.34 and $21.89, with an initial technical target above $24.22 and a secondary target at $26.55 if momentum continues. QBE is beginning to look like a more stable, higher-quality insurance franchise with clearer strategic direction and enhanced shareholder discipline. The combination of improved fundamentals, attractive capital management, technical strength, and reduced volatility presents a compelling case for a long-term buy. While near-term resistance could limit immediate upside, the medium-to-long-term trajectory remains upward, supported by both earnings’ growth and multiple expansion potential.